Very likely, yes. At a 4% withdrawal rate your money lasted to age 95 in 100% of simulations. You could spend up to about $78,000 a year ($6,500 a month, a 5.2% withdrawal rate) and still succeed 90% of the time.
We ran a $1.5 million portfolio through 5,000 simulated retirements using shuffled S&P 500 returns from 1955 to 2024. Each row below shows how often the money lasted until age 95 at a given withdrawal rate. Spending rises with inflation every year.
| Withdrawal rate | Per year | Per month | With Social Security | Without |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | $45,000 | $3,750 | 100% | 99% |
| 3.5% | $52,500 | $4,375 | 100% | 96% |
| 4% | $60,000 | $5,000 | 100% | 88% |
| 4.5% | $67,500 | $5,625 | 98% | 74% |
| 5% | $75,000 | $6,250 | 94% | 57% |
| 6% | $90,000 | $7,500 | 69% | 25% |
How long does $1.5 million need to last?
Retiring at 70 means your money needs to last about 25 years (to age 95). That is close to the 30-year window the 4% rule was built for, so the classic rule of thumb is a reasonable starting point.
How much does Social Security help?
Social Security starts right away in this scenario. Benefits of about $24,000 a year lift the 4% success rate from 88% (no benefits) to 100%.
Sequence of returns risk
Average returns don't tell the whole story. Most failed simulations share a common factor: a market crash early in retirement, where withdrawals deplete a shrinking portfolio. This is known as sequence of returns risk, which explains why a portfolio with a "7% average return" can still be depleted prematurely.
A common defense against this risk is flexibility. Retirees who adjust their spending down after a bad year (often called a guardrails approach) can generally sustain a higher initial withdrawal rate than these fixed-spending models indicate.
Run it with your own numbers
Your situation isn't exactly this one. Open the calculator with this scenario loaded, then change your spending, Social Security or stock allocation and watch the success rate move.
Frequently asked questions
How much can I spend if I retire at 70 with $1.5 million?
About $78,000 a year ($6,500 a month) kept the portfolio alive to age 95 in at least 90% of 5,000 simulations based on S&P 500 returns from 1955 to 2024, assuming a 60/40 portfolio, 3% inflation, 15% tax on investment growth and Social Security of about $24,000 a year from age 70.
Is $1.5 million enough to retire at 70?
At the classic 4% withdrawal rate ($60,000 a year), the money lasted to age 95 in 100% of simulations. Whether that is enough depends on your spending, so run your own numbers in the free calculator.
What if Social Security is cut?
With no Social Security at all, the 4% success rate for retiring at 70 with $1.5 million is 88%, compared with 100% with benefits.
Assumptions
- Retire today at 70 and plan for money to last to age 95.
- 60% stocks (S&P 500 annual returns, 1955–2024, drawn at random without replacement) and 40% bonds/cash earning 4% a year.
- Spending and Social Security rise with 3% inflation each year.
- 15% tax on investment growth and Social Security in retirement.
- Social Security of about $24,000 a year in today's dollars, starting at 70.
These results are illustrative, not financial advice. Past market returns don't guarantee future results.