It is the question that keeps every retiree awake at 3 AM. You have saved a nest egg. It looks like a big number. But is it enough?
Will it last until you are 85? 95? What if you live to be 105 and the money ran out ten years ago?
The fear of outliving your money is real. And unlike a stock market crash, which is loud and sudden, this risk is quiet. It creeps up on you one year at a time.
The answer to "how long will it last" is not a single date on a calendar. It depends on three moving parts interacting in a complex dance.
The Three Things That Matter
Think of your retirement plan as a stool with three legs. If one leg is short, the others need to be longer to keep you upright.
1. How Much You Spend (The Control Lever)
This is the one you control the most. Let's do some simple math. If you have $1 million and you spend $100,000 a year, you have 10 years before you are broke. That is a 10% withdrawal rate, and it is way too fast.
But if you spend $40,000 a year (that is 4%), your money has a chance to grow while you sleep. The remaining 96% stays invested, and generates returns for you while you sleep.
Here is where it gets tricky. The difference between spending 4% ($40,000) and 5% ($50,000) sounds tiny. It is just 1%. But over a long retirement, that extra 1% is huge. It can drain your portfolio a decade sooner. Every dollar you do not spend is a soldier that stays in the fort to fight another day.
2. Inflation (The Silent Thief)
You cannot control this one, but you must respect it. A gallon of milk cost $0.36 in 1960. Today it is over $4.00.
If you stuff your money under a mattress, it is safe from the stock market, but it is being eaten alive by inflation. To make your savings last 30+ years, your money must grow. You need to invest in assets that outpace inflation, or your purchasing power will vanish long before you do.
3. Investment Returns (The Wild Card)
This is the chaos factor. If you retire into a bull market, your portfolio might double in your first five years. You will likely die with more money than you started with.
If you retire into a crash, your portfolio takes a hit right when you start withdrawing. It is the danger that bad returns early in retirement will dig a hole so deep you can never climb out.
Using the Simulator to See the Future
You cannot predict the market, and you cannot predict inflation. But you can prepare for them.
That is why we built the Retirement Savings Simulator. It does not just give you one answer. It runs thousands of scenarios.
Go to the simulator and look at the "Savings Depleted Age" card. It might say "Never" for 90% of scenarios. But look at the failures. When does it fail? Age 82? Age 91?
Try this experiment:
- Increase your spending by $500 a month. Watch how the success rate drops. That extra dinner out might cost you 5 years of security.
- Lower your investment return by 1%. See how much sooner the money runs out. This shows you why fees matter.
- Add a "side hustle" income. Even a small amount of earned income in the early years of retirement can drastically extend the life of your portfolio.
The Ultimate Safety Net: Flexibility
The people who run out of money are usually the ones who refuse to change course. They drive off the cliff because the map said the road was straight.
If the market crashes, spend less. If inflation spikes, delay that big purchase. If your portfolio drops below a certain level, pick up a part-time consulting gig.
Your savings will last as long as you are paying attention. You are the captain of this ship. Keep your hand on the wheel, watch the weather, and you will make it to the other side.