| Retirement age | $500k | $1M | $1.5M | $2M | $3M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retire at 40 | 84% | 45% | 31% | 26% | 21% |
| Retire at 45 | 96% | 61% | 45% | 37% | 30% |
| Retire at 50 | 100% | 79% | 61% | 52% | 43% |
| Retire at 55 | 100% | 93% | 78% | 69% | 59% |
| Retire at 60 | 100% | 99% | 92% | 85% | 75% |
| Retire at 62 | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 82% |
| Retire at 65 | 100% | 100% | 98% | 96% | 90% |
| Retire at 70 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 97% |
Two key patterns emerge from this data. First, retiring later significantly improves your odds: every extra year of work is one less year your savings have to cover.
Second, larger portfolios show lower success rates at the same 4% withdrawal rate. This occurs because Social Security is a fixed amount (about $24,000 a year), so it covers most of a $20,000 withdrawal but only a small fraction of a $120,000 withdrawal. The higher your spending, the more reliant you are on your portfolio's performance.
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Assumptions
Each scenario assumes you retire today, hold 60% stocks and 40% bonds earning 4%, raise spending with 3% inflation, pay 15% tax on growth, and receive about $24,000 a year of Social Security (today's dollars) from age 67.
These results are illustrative, not financial advice.